Dr Jeff Masters, inventor of Weather Underground, writes in his latest blog that the second half of June will be very quiet. This is good news to the extent that SPI sees more tropical storms in the early season than later, such a August and September. In those latter months, hurricanes develop in disturbances off the African coast.
Early season is dominated by cold fronts that become stationary in the Gulf of Mexico. That is not happening, and wind sheer is quite high - meaning that any cyclones would easily get ripped apart. So far this year, the season was characterized by about four extra-tropical cyclones that developed over Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Carolina.
So far we've been lucky because this is our prime time for hurricanes in lower Texas. Two years ago Emily came in on July 8, so when we get past mid-July we're pretty much out of the window of opportunity. However, no telling about wave damage to our beaches, which was severe even with a whimpy sub-tropical named Barry on June 1. That storm was over 1,000 away and developed waves that went clean up to the dunes on June 3.
Knock on wood, bruddas and sistas!